The TV Industry Will Never Recover From The Coronavirus

August 24, 2020

Lucas Shaw 

When Joe Biden took the rostrum at the Democratic National Convention this past week, some viewers saw the future president of the United States. Others saw an avuncular 77-year-old holding forth on American exceptionalism. And still more saw a threat to their preferred candidate (rhymes with frump).

Media executives saw one thing: dollar signs. The 2020 election will generate some $5 billion in advertising sales this year, according to Magna Global, a 24% increase from 2016. This is the most expensive campaign on record in every respect.

That’s the good news for TV executives. While the internet will eclipse $1 billion in U.S. political ad sales for the first time this year, the bulk of that money (between $3 billion and $4 billion) will go to TV networks.

Now here’s the bad news: Not even a record year for political advertising can rescue the TV business. Global TV ad sales are projected to fall 12% this year, and U.S. TV ad sales are projected to fall even more. Last year was already the worst year for TV ad sales since the last recession.

The sudden collapse of TV ad sales is a big deal when viewed alongside the acceleration in cord-cutting. The share of households that pays for a live TV service is at its lowest level since 1994, according to MoffettNathanson.

Advertising and cable subscriptions have been the twin engines driving the growth of media companies for decades. Now both are faltering, and there can be only one conclusion: the traditional TV business will never recover.

The last recession sent print advertising into a tailspin from which it’s never recovered, and most experts are forecasting this recession will do the same to TV ad sales. TV networks won’t lose advertisers as quickly as newspapers because of live events. If your company wants to reach 100 million people at one time, the Super Bowl is still the best way to do that. 

Even so, domestic TV ad sales are projected to fall $14 billion (or 23%) by 2024, according to the fine folks at Bloomberg Intelligence.

So what does this mean for viewers?

Fewer new scripted shows and more cheap reality on cable, and more of everything on the internet. After years of trying to hold the pay-TV bundle together with ideas like "TV everywhere" and "skinny bundles," many companies have now accepted that cable isn't bouncing back. They are now cutting resources to cable networks, such as the gutting /remaking of Comedy Central, to invest in streaming.

This helps explain the recent upheaval at companies like Comcast and WarnerMedia, which are jettisoning leaders and firing staff. While these changes have shaken Hollywood and cost people jobs, they suggest the largest and slowest media companies have finally seen the writing on the wall. They need to 

The number of people paying for an online video service of some kind has soared during the pandemic. And, despite all the concerns about fraudulent view counts, brand safety and general venality, internet companies offer advertisers the one thing they want: growing, engaged audiences. Online video ad sales will grow 10.8% this year, the strongest of any category.

This will shift even more power from legacy media companies overly reliant on cable networks to a handful of internet companies who use entertainment to sell ads, diapers and phones. Jeff Bezos' net worth has climbed more than $50 billion this year, more than the total value of ViacomCBS Inc., Discovery Inc. and AMC Networks Inc. combined.

But just as a handful of news outlets have survived the shift online by trying new business models, expect a few savvy media companies will ride out the storm as well. – Lucas Shaw

Read More:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-08-23/the-tv-industry-will-never-recover-from-the-coronavirus?sref=FW2A5Nlq